Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Traders must be flexible and consider other possibilities

Not much has happened since late 2014: SPY is trading between 200 and 210. For the past month, SPY has been in a rising channel, which is also within a 3-month trading range:

A bullish scenario is that stocks stay within this rising channel and later break above the late-February high.

A bearish scenario is that this channel could be a bearish flag that could send SPY back down to around 204.

Or it could be nothing as prices form a new pattern.

I'm not going to guess. As noted, I try to participate rather than anticipate. If we try to pre-position ourselves by making anticipatory entries, we are likely to get chopped up by this choppy range-bound trading. Staying patient is always a challenge, but we can do it.

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