Sunday, April 26, 2015

Participate, not anticipate

Stocks have been range-bound throughout 2015:

With the mini-rally last week, SPY is at the top of its trading range.

Will SPY break through resistance and close at a new high? Nobody knows. The market is going to go wherever it wants to go. If stocks decisively close above resistance, then traders will have a chance to go long after stocks prove themselves. If SPY is turned back here, traders can stay out or go short.

So much of trading well is positioning and making a bet only when the reward-to-risk ratio is favorable. We don't have to make a big long bet here and hope for a breakout. We can let the market reveal its direction and hitch a ride, if we see a favorable entry spot.

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