Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Gold miners ETF (GDX) showing interesting action

First, let's look at the 18-month chart of GDX:

Gold miners dropped 40% from August 2014 to November 2014. Then it seemed to be forming a possible continuation H&S top, which, if completed, could start another decline.

Now let's focus on the last 7 months:

A textbook continuation H&S top. But look at the possible right shoulder: seems to be a rising wedge. A rising wedge is usually a bearish pattern. But sometimes the price breaks above the upper boundary and creates a bullish running wedge, as it may be doing here.

So instead of a possible textbook continuation H&S top with a textbook rising wedge as a right shoulder, we may instead have a textbook continuation H&S top failure with a running wedge as the right shoulder.

Remember, trading is about mere possibilities and never certainties. Staying mentally flexible allows us to spot patterns and trade set-ups that are opposite to our expectations. This set-up in GDX may be one of those instances.

Never chase and don't worry about what others are dong. Just because there is a "textbook" set-up does not mean it is easy to trade. Trading well means betting only when there is a highly favorable entry spot and we are able to catch it. If we miss it, so be it. There may be another opportunity to enter. Or not. But it is better to sit out a trade than chase and lose money.

There will always be more set-ups.

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