Thursday, May 14, 2015

Stocks about to break out? Maybe. Stay flexible.

Stocks have been range bound throughout 2015 and especially since February. Now it seems a resolution to this range-bound trading may be at hand:

We see a breakout from a 3-week symmetrical triangle that may push SPY above resistance and possibly launch the next uptrend of this 6-year bull market.

Previously, we discussed possible bearish readings of the SPY chart. These bearish interpretations may still come true. After all, SPY has not yet decisively cleared resistance around the 212 level.

The key is not anticipating or predicting but keeping our minds open and participating with the market trend. My sense is that many traders and investors thought this 3-month congestion would lead, finally, to a meaningful decline. I have also been watching for the long-awaited correction. The decline could still happen. But I will do my best to stay mentally flexible to be able to take advantage of the actual price action.

If we are bearish and positioned accordingly, then we can try exiting our positions, clearing our mind as best as we can, and just waiting for the market to declare its intentions. The same goes for the bulls. If the breakout fails yet again, then we might try not trading until the true trend is revealed.

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