Failed breakout in NYSE index

In my last post, I said that the NYSE index would have to decisively close and stay above the July 2014 high for a convincing breakout. The following chart shows that the NYSE was turned back at the old high:

This is the 4th time in less than a year that the NYSE index was turned back around the 11,100 level. Of course the market can attempt another breakout and this rejection could turn out to be a bear trap just as the breakout attempt turned out to be a bull trap.

What is clear is that, at least according to the NYSE index, the market is not ready to start yet another uptrend in this 6-year bull run.

Bears will be happy with this breakout failure. We'll have to wait to see if this rejection is the beginning of a significant market top or perhaps even a long-term top. But remember that many people have been calling, inaccurately, for a top for several years. We'll just have to wait for a resolution of this trading range.