Next, let's zoom in on the potential second peak:
Now let's look at a 2-year daily chart of SPY:
I see a possible 20-month H&S top where the head is itself a 6-month H&S top (from which SPY broke down during the August sell-off). After rallying for 4 months from the August 2015 low, SPY now has a potentially very bearish set-up. Let's zoom in on the last 6 months:
As of the market close on Friday, December 18, I see a potential breakdown from a 4-month channel as well as a completion of a 6-week horn top. Of course, nobody knows where the market will go on Monday and beyond. Both QQQ and SPY can rally off support levels and invalidate our set-ups. The only things we can control are our trade entries and risk management.
Merry Christmas!
